Wind energy capacity set to double by 2030 – but that’s still not enough

Global wind energy capacity is set to more than double by 2030 based on current national commitments – but will remain about 600 GW short of what’s necessary to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The calculation, published by think tank Ember Climate, is based on the current wind energy commitments of more than 70 governments worldwide. It represents a 2.4x increase from the 901 GW already installed in 2022.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) project that a global tripling of renewable energy capacity to at least 11,000 GW is necessary by 2030 to keep the temperature rise to 1.5ºC. Wind itself would need to triple to 2,742 GW by the end of the decade, generating 19% of global electricity supply.

This means that under current commitments, wind capacity will still be 585 GW short of what it should be by 2030.

“Governments are lacking ambition on wind, and especially onshore wind. Amidst the hype of solar, wind is not getting enough attention, even though it provides cheap electricity and complements solar. The path to a cleaner energy future could be shaped by prioritising improved policies, regulatory frameworks and financial support,” said Katye Altieri, Global Electricity Analyst at Ember.

National wind targets achievable on a global scale

The report suggests that to meet the national targets of all 70 countries as well as the EU as a bloc, 163 GW of wind capacity needs to be added globally every year from 2024 to 2030. In 2023, 116 GW of wind power capacity was added (a historic record), but Ember notes that 2030 targets remain achievable – largely thanks to China.

The country only accounts for 37% of global wind targets, but it is forecast to install over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030, overachieving on its own target and helping the world get closer to its 2030 goals.

Meanwhile, recent analysis suggests that the US is not on track to meet its own 2030 wind goal.

To reach the 2,742 GW necessary to keep a 1.5ºC future within reach, annual wind capacity additions would need to average 246 GW per year from 2024 to 2030 – more than double from 2023.

Ben Backwell, CEO of the Global Wind Energy Council, commented: “This latest report from Ember shows commendable growth of wind energy around the world. Unfortunately, we are facing a climate emergency, and the world needs transformational action that delivers on the tripling promise set out at COP28. Action must be taken on permitting, finance, and supply chains – areas where action will deliver multiple benefits that close the gap between action and delivery. There is no time for empty promises, this is the time for action.”