US announces 61% emissions reduction goal for 2035 – likely to be led by states

United States President Joe Biden has announced the country’s new nationally determined contribution (NDC): 61-66% emissions reduction by 2035. But over the next Trump presidency, climate efforts will likely be led at the state level.

The new US NDC, considered highly ambitious (in comparison, Canada has vowed to cut emissions by 45-50% over the next decade) has been submitted to the UN Climate Change Committee ahead of next year’s COP30 – the official deadline for submissions.

It comes at an uncertain time for US climate policy, with President-Elect Donald Trump vowing to withdraw the country from the Paris Agreement again, and to spur fossil fuel development. 

But the Biden administration believes its decarbonisation plan will forge ahead regardless of who sits in the White House. 

“There are multiple paths to reach these targets, and US Federal, state, local, territorial, and Tribal governments have numerous tools available to work with civil society and the private sector to mobilise investment in the years ahead while supporting a stronger, fairer economy,” it wrote in a statement announcing the new target.

Climate-friendly states likely to take the lead

Since the President-Elect is so vocally opposed to advancing the fight against climate change, US companies can expect little decarbonisation support at the federal level over the next four years – opening the door for states to take the lead.

The US Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition of 24 state governors committed to the country’s net zero future, applauded the new federal goal – and immediately complemented it with their own collective pledge to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 61-66% below 2005 levels by 2035.

“The only thing clearer than the science and impacts of climate change is the benefit of taking action – and we’re not slowing down,” said the Alliance’s co-chair, New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham. “By continuing to stamp out climate pollution together, we’re safeguarding public health, protecting the environment, growing the economy, and creating good jobs across the US.”

December 2024 research by the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability found that strong leadership by non-federal actors could put the US on a path to 54-62% emissions reductions by 2035, despite potential blocks and rollbacks at the federal level. 

What will happen to the energy transition under Trump?

While Trump’s upcoming second presidency is a cause for concern in the sustainability world, many believe it won’t have as negative an impact as it may seem. 

Much of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act funding has already been distributed to climate-friendly projects, which will continue to operate over the coming years. 

At the same time, experts argue that renewables now make more economic sense than fossil fuels in many applications, which has led to growing bi-partisan support.

“Both Republican-led and Democratic-led states are seeing the benefits of wind, solar, and battery manufacturing and deployment thanks to the billions of dollars of investments unleashed by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and the Inflation Reduction Act. Governors and representatives in Congress on both sides of the aisle have come to recognise that clean energy is a huge moneymaker and a job creator,” said Dan Lashof, US Director, World Resources Institute.

While “confident that the energy transition in the US will continue over the coming decade regardless of who sits in the White House,” Aurora Energy Research points out that the Trump administration could slow down its pace, namely by blocking some funding and making  the tax code less favourable for clean energy.