UK only country with 1.5ºC-aligned 2035 climate target

As the deadline to submit 2035 climate targets under the Paris Agreement looms, the UK is the only country planning sufficient actions to limit the temperature rise to 1.5ºC.

The latest Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analysis shows that only 10 countries so far have submitted their new nationally determined contributions (NDCs), the domestic climate targets to be set periodically under the rules of the Paris Agreement.

But only the UK’s target – to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 81% from 1990 levels and achieve a net zero economy by 2035 – is deemed consistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5ºC.

New oil and gas fields could be banned in the UK

“Key commitments — such as exploring a ban on new fossil fuel exploration licenses, ending petrol car sales by 2030, which is five years earlier than the EU, and accelerating renewables — show that the UK means business on climate action. The UK's NDC is an encouraging sign of leadership, especially following the US’ step back, and will hopefully catalyze a new wave of ambition from other countries,” commented Edward Davey, Head of World Resources Institute's UK Office.

On the same day that the UK submitted its NDC to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – January 30 – the Scottish High Court ruled that the approval process of two North Sea oil and gas fields last year did not consider the environmental impact of burning fossil fuels. This effectively blocked operations at the Rosebank and Jackdaw sites until a new climate assessment is conducted.

New NDCs ‘fall short of what is needed’

The other five NDCs analysed by CAT – including those of Brazil, New Zealand, the UAE, US and Switzerland – are considered to fall short of what’s needed to keep climate change in check. 

According to the tracker, the level of emissions expected by 2030 if countries meet their existing NDCs will be twice as high as the limit necessary to meet the 1.5˚C Paris Agreement temperature goal. 

“So far, governments haven't lived up to their promises made ten years ago — to bring the world closer to a pathway consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C at the speed needed. The deadline they themselves set ten years ago needs to mark the beginning of a year that sees a marked turning point in government action," warned Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, a Climate Action Tracker partner organisation.

Country climate targets: Better late than rushed

But while CAT also expressed concern about the low number of countries that have submitted their NDCs before the February 10 deadline, the World Resources Institute urged governments to take their time to come up with robust targets and plans.

“There are a few reasons why other nations’ plans haven’t come through yet. The last round of NDCs was delayed by a year due to the COVID pandemic, so countries have had only four years since then to come up with new plans,” explained David Waskow, International Climate Director, World Resources Institute.

“While most nations will not deliver their plans this month, it’s far better to have strong commitments later this year than rushed, weak ones now. The largest emitters in particular have a responsibility to unveil bold new plans that offer a credible pathway to reaching their net-zero promises. Leaders must not treat this process as a box-checking exercise. Weak plans mean a bleak future, plain and simple. 2025 is the year to step up," he added.

Despite the delay, countries are expected to submit their next NDCs before COP30, which is taking place in November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.