Trump confirms US exit from Paris Agreement on Day 1 as President

Donald Trump signed an executive order to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement on January 20, his first day as President.

By notifying the United Nations of his decision to leave the global climate accord, Trump fulfilled one of his flagship campaign promises, geared towards giving full freedom to US oil and gas producers to “drill baby drill” once again. 

During his inaugural speech yesterday at the Capitol, President Trump said: "America will be a manufacturing nation once again, and we have something that no other manufacturing nation will ever have, the largest amount of oil and gas of any country on Earth, and we are going to use it.”

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Assessing the impact of US withdrawal on global climate targets

The US was the world’s second largest greenhouse gas emitter (behind China) in 2019, with over 6 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent. As such, its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the expected subsequent increase in fossil fuel output will inevitably hinder global climate goals – but the full impact may be difficult to predict.

This is not the first time the US has left the climate accord: this was also one of Trump’s first moves when he started his first presidential term in 2017. But due to Paris Agreement rules that prevent countries from withdrawing within the first three years of its ratification – November 4, 2016 in the case of the US – the withdrawal only became effective in November 2020, at the very end of the first Trump administration.

Until the withdrawal is complete, countries are expected to maintain their commitments to the Agreement, which include reporting annually on emissions and publishing nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or domestic emissions reduction goals. 

Joe Biden rejoined the Paris Agreement in February 2021, meaning non-participation by the US only lasted two months – not much of a precedent to understand what to expect this time, with the withdrawal to become official in January 2026.

In April 2024, German researchers estimated that non-participation of the US in the Paris Agreement would “eliminate more than a third of the world emissions reduction”. 

What will happen to the US NDC

In December 2024, Joe Biden fulfilled the Paris Agreement obligation to update NDCs by 2025, announcing a new 61-66% emissions reduction target by 2035. With Trump’s second mandate already looming at the time, experts warned that the climate goal would likely be led on a local level, by states and the private sector.

With the US out of the Paris Agreement, the 2035 climate goal will effectively be cancelled, since it will no longer be legally binding. Certain states, however, rushed to adopt an equivalent target that will remain in place even as the national goal becomes void.