SAF production growth was ‘disappointingly slow’ in 2024

New sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production estimates show that volumes doubled in 2024, reaching 1 million tonnes – significantly below predictions.

Previous estimates put 2024 production around 1.5 million tonnes, but several SAF production facilities in the US ended up delaying their production ramp-up to the first half of 2025. 

In total, SAF accounted for just 0.3% of all aviation fuel production last year. 

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which released the findings this week, believes this “disappointingly slow” ramp-up is partly due to the mixed signals sent to the oil and gas sector about the need to pivot to sustainable fuel production.

“Governments are sending mixed signals to oil companies which continue to receive subsidies for their exploration and production of fossil oil and gas. And investors in new generation fuel producers seem to be waiting for guarantees of easy money before going full throttle,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“With airlines, the core of the value chain, earning just a 3.6% net margin, profitability expectations for SAF investors need to be slow and steady, not fast and furious,” he added.

Airline appetite for SAF continues to increase

Still, IATA forecasts that SAF production will double again next year, reaching 2.1 million tonnes, as governments and the industry strengthen their efforts to scale up supply.

Airlines around the world have been making investments in this technology – their only real chance at lowering GHG emissions without cutting flights. But recent analysis showed that they may not be investing enough: Transport and Environment (T&E) this month found that the SAF purchases made by 77 airlines would only lead to a 0.15% to 1.3% increase in SAF consumption by 2030 – reducing the sector’s greenhouse gas emissions by less than 1% or “not even enough to offset growth in air traffic”. 

“Make no mistake that airlines are eager to buy SAF and there is money to be made by investors and companies who see the long-term future of decarbonization,” said Walsh.

Renewable fuel production needs

For the industry to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, IATA estimates that between 3,000 and 6,500 new renewable fuel plants will be needed – requiring CAPEX of about US$128 billion per year.

For Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President Sustainability and Chief Economist: “Governments must quickly deliver concrete policy incentives to rapidly accelerate renewable energy production. There is already a model to follow with the transition to wind and solar power. The good news is that the energy transition, which includes SAF, will need less than half the annual investments that realising wind and solar production at scale required. And a good portion of the needed funding could be realised by redirecting a portion of the retrograde subsidies that governments give to the fossil fuel industry.”

IATA recommendations to accelerate SAF deployment

Until these government incentives become a reality, IATA suggests that the SAF industry could take some measures to accelerate its own development. For instance, the association recommends increasing “co-processing” of renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil – which would save US$347 billion in CAPEX by 2050; diversifying SAF production; and creating a global SAF accounting framework to allow airlines to claim the environmental attributes of their SAF purchases.