EVs could represent nearly a quarter of all EU car sales next year

Electric vehicles (EVs) could reach a market share of 20-24% next year in the EU, based on current sales and forecasts analysed by Transport & Environment.

New research by the transport decarbonisation think tank shows that the expected growth in battery-electric car sales next year will be partly driven by the commercialisation of seven new fully-electric models under €25,000 in late 2024 and 2025 by Hyundai, Renault, Stellantis and Volkswagen.

This growth will contribute about 60% of the CO2 reduction car manufacturers need to achieve as part of the EU’s 2025 emissions reduction targets.

With these forecasts, Transport & Environment (T&E) is urging carmakers not to slow down their electrification or lobby for looser emissions targets from the EU – a week after the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) asked for a two year delay on 2025 goals.

Lucien Mathieu, cars director at T&E, said: “2025 will be a great year for Europeans in the market for an electric car. BEVs should be almost a quarter of new cars sold thanks to a glut of new, more affordable models. But manufacturers' reliance on hybrids, which are reaching the limits of their CO2 saving potential, is a short sighted strategy for the climate and competing with Chinese BEVs.”

Carmakers disagree on EU emissions targets

ACEA represents 15 of the top European-based manufacturers including BMW, Hyundai, Ford, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Volkswagen and Volvo, and several of these individual carmakers or their CEOs have publicly asked for a review of next year’s targets.

Volvo recently dropped its goal to sell only electric vehicles by 2030 due to “market uncertainties” – and as a result, also lowered its emissions reduction ambition for this decade – but it is the only company already on track to be compliant with the 2025 emissions goal based on EV sales forecasts, according to T&E.

Meanwhile, Stellantis has firmly opposed the emissions target delay requested by ACEA.

T&E: Manufacturers relying too heavily on hybrids

T&E’s research, which is based on sales forecasts and market research, shows that Stellantis and Volkswagen Group also expect to rely on hybrids for 33% and 30% respectively of the CO2 reduction they still need to achieve by 2025. Meanwhile Mercedes-Benz and Renault will also get 17% and 15% of their emissions reductions from hybrids next year.

If manufacturers rely more heavily on hybrids to comply with their emissions reduction targets, the EV market share would be just 20% next year – compared to 24% if they push more fully-electric cars to the market.