European aviation sector ‘on the verge of major change’ towards climate goals

The European aviation sector is on a “clear path” towards reducing its climate impacts, with a favourable policy environment and milestone developments underway, according to the fourth European Aviation Environmental Report.

The 2025 report, published by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) with support from the European Environment Agency (EEA) and EUROCONTROL, highlights the progress made by the industry in recent years – particularly in terms of fuel efficiency and carbon intensity.

The average grams of CO2 emitted per passenger kilometre (gCO2/pkm) was 83 in 2023, down from 89 in 2019, reflecting a 2.1% annual fuel efficiency improvement since 2005. This means that although the number and distance of flights are nearly back to pre-pandemic levels, CO2 emissions remained 10% lower in 2023 (133 million tonnes) than in 2019.

EASA predicts that this carbon intensity could continue decreasing down to 56 gCO2/pkm in 2050 under the considered fuel efficiency improvement scenario for future aircraft deliveries and air traffic management improvements scenario. 

“We are on the verge of a major change, affecting the entire sector – from technological, energy and operational perspectives. The recent milestone developments, both in Europe and globally, give aviation a clear path towards significantly lowering its climate footprint,” said Magda Kopczyńska, Director-General for Mobility and Transport at the European Commission, in her foreword to the report.

Favourable policy developments for sustainable aviation

Recent progress is set to accelerate in the coming years thanks to a favourable policy environment, with the ReFuelEU directive mandating 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) content in all EU flights from 2025, and 70% by 2050. 

This would cut net CO2 emissions from the European aviation sector by at least 65 million tonnes (47%) by mid-century. As of 2024, SAF production represented only 0.53% of global jet fuel use.

In addition, the EU aims to leverage its updated Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to reduce the price gap between SAF and fossil-based fuels. SAF is currently three to 10 times more expensive than conventional jet fuel.

Decarbonisation hurdles and non-CO2 emissions

However, Kopczyńska added that “the path ahead is far from straightforward”: SAF adoption remains too slow and aircraft innovation has been more focused on marginal improvements than disruptive technologies this century.

Moreover, non-CO2 emissions such as nitrogen oxides and water vapour, which have a much stronger warming effect than CO2, are growing at a faster rate than CO2 emissions, but are still largely misunderstood. 

EASA notes in the report that a non-CO2 measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) framework began on January 1, 2025 to improve the monitoring of these emissions when produced by aircraft operators. “This framework is designed to provide valuable data for scientific research that will enhance our understanding of non-CO2 effects and help address aviation climate impacts more effectively,” the report adds.

Focus on climate adaptation and resilience

The report also warns that the aviation sector needs to increase its focus on climate adaptation and resilience – particularly in Europe, which is warming twice as fast as the global average.

Changes in weather patterns are expected to create more disruptions for flight operators, including severe convective storms and clear air turbulence. In response to these climate effects, EASA has added this topic to the strategic priorities of the European Plan for Aviation Safety, the regional aviation safety plan for Europe.