Climate experts predict net zero delay, but remain optimistic

Climate experts believe Trump’s pro-fossil fuels policies will delay the US’ net zero target until the 2060s, but remain optimistic about the climate momentum.

This is according to a survey of 250 climate transition experts across 15 transition sectors and 21 countries, conducted by the Inevitable Policy Response (IPR) on behalf of the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI).

Respondents expect 40% of G20 nations to meet their net zero target by 2054 at the latest, and that no country within the group will miss their target by more than 15 years.

Overall, the IPR 2025 Transition Forecast suggests 937 gigatonnes of CO2 emissions between now and the time the world achieves net zero, consistent with a 67% probability of limiting global warming to 2°C or below.

However, the organisation warns that temperature predictions have become “more art than science” due to increasingly volatile weather trends, and that should negative emissions technologies such as direct air capture fail to materialise, the temperature increase by 2100 may be 0.2°C-0.3°C higher than forecast.

Uncertain policy outlook

The next five years should see continued growth in clean power and electric vehicles, despite an anti-ESG policy agenda in the US. On average, G20 clean power shares and EV adoption is expected to rise by more than 10 percentage points by 2030.

In fact, the electrification of transport could soon move from light passenger cars to heavy duty vehicles: by the 2030s, climate experts believe the adoption rate of electric heavy-duty vehicles could surpass that of electric light-duty vehicles, driven by lower battery costs and the underlying economics of fleet operations.

While the policy momentum for clean power peaked in 2024 in G20 economies, experts warn that the policy outlook is more uncertain for 2025, with potential trade wars between the US and other countries manufacturing green technologies, including China.

Slow progress on nature and deforestation

Experts remain optimistic about the energy transition, but are much less hopeful about ending deforestation and restoring nature. 

Only Japan is expected to join the nine G20 countries that have achieved no net deforestation by 2030, while 40% of G20 nations may continue deforestation into 2040.

At the same time, low-carbon agriculture and nature incentives overall recorded insufficient policy momentum in 2024. Only France is expected to significantly reduce emissions from agriculture before 2040, based on current policies. Experts also do not believe that the Global Biodiversity Framework’s  30% protection of land target will be achieved by 2030, except for China, France, and Italy.