Biden vs. Trump: Climate priorities and policy

On November 5 2024, millions of Americans will head to the ballots to determine the next president of the United States. American voters face starkly different candidates, especially regarding their stances on energy and environmental issues, and the outcome of this election is expected to shape the future of the climate transition. 

The climate crisis is more urgent now than ever. The world experienced its hottest year on record in 2023, during which millions faced record-breaking wildfires and tropical storms, exposing the weakness of our energy grids and public infrastructure in the face of climate-related natural disasters. 

Here's how the two U.S. presidential candidates line up on sustainability and climate-related issues.

Biden aims to see his climate-focused initiatives through 

A hallmark policy of incumbent President Joe Biden’s administration was the Inflation Reduction Act, passed in 2022, which has helped the U.S. build renewable energy plants, make homes more efficient, create a domestic battery industry, and introduce more climate-focused agricultural practices, to name a few.

The IRA has been celebrated for catalysing the energy transition in the U.S. – a shift the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, among others, say must happen for the world to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the levels scientists say would prevent the most catastrophic and irreversible damage to our atmosphere.

During his current mandate, Biden has set new rules that include limits on emissions, effectively requiring electric vehicles to account for a majority of the new cars sold by 2032. He also mandated that coal plants eliminate some 90% of their emissions by 2039 or close up shop, and required that oil and gas companies plug their methane leaks. 

But Biden’s administration underperformed in some of the areas where it set goals. A more ambitious version of his climate investment plan failed because it lacked the critical support of Senator Joe Manchin, forcing the administration to add in some major concessions for the fossil fuels industry.

President Biden also allowed some major oil projects to pass, including the Willow project in Alaska and a permit for the Mountain Valley pipeline. Under Biden’s presidency, the U.S. has become the biggest oil producer in the world, despite his promise four years ago of “no more drilling, period.” 

Still, the Biden administration’s climate policies are expected to cut the U.S.’s greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030 from 2005 levels. The U.S. is currently on track to reduce emissions by 50% by 2030, the Department of Energy forecasts. 

While Biden received much backlash from Republican leaders for the IRA, Republican states stand to gain the most from IRA-related investments, an analysis from Jeffries found. Of the 271 major clean energy projects announced since the bill’s passage, nearly half (48.3%) are in states with Republican leadership. Still, Republicans have attempted to repeal or reduce funding from the act 31 times since it passed. 

If Trump wins, fossil fuel companies are likely in luck

Trump favoured fossil fuel development during his presidency from 2017 to 2021. He approved the Keystone oil pipeline, expedited the Dakota Access pipeline, and expanded offshore drilling. 

Trump also rolled back more than 100 environmental regulations during his term, most of which were aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including those that sought to limit pollution from power plants and transport. He also pulled the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, shrank the EPA, and required that the words “climate change” be removed from his website.

Looking ahead, the Heritage Foundation’s sweeping plan for a conservative presidency, Project 2025, seeks to increase the production of fossil fuels and asserts that the government has an “obligation to develop vast oil and gas and coal resources” on public land. Trump has supported many of the plan’s ideas during his campaign this year. He has also reportedly promised oil executives that he will reverse regulations that impact them should they give him US$1 billion to reclaim the White House. 

Trump has pledged to rescind “every one” of Biden’s climate regulations aimed at accelerating the energy transition and promoting electric vehicles. 

Regarding Department of Energy reforms, Project 2025 would: “Unleash private-sector energy innovation by ending government interference in energy decisions,” as well as “Stop the war on oil and natural gas,” and “Refocus FERC on ensuring that customers have affordable and reliable electricity, natural gas, and oil and no longer allow it to favour special interests and progressive causes.”

Per the playbook, the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge would be reopened to drilling; the full Willow project – five drill sites rather than the abridged three – would be approved; coal leasing restored; drilling permits expedited; methane emissions rules and other pollution limits rescinded; national monuments shrunk or eliminated; protections for vulnerable species removed; and the administration would try to repeal the Antiquities Act of 1906, which was the first U.S. law to provide general protection of cultural and natural resources of historic or scientific interest on federal lands. 

In March, Carbon Brief estimated that a second Trump presidency could result in more than four billion tonnes of additional greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. by 2030 – an amount it said is equal to the annual emissions of all of Europe and Japan combined. These extra emissions under a Trump second term “would negate – twice over – all of the savings from deploying wind, solar and other clean technologies around the world over the past five years.” 

“A second Trump term that successfully dismantles Biden’s climate legacy would likely end any global hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5ºC,” Carbon Brief said.

Trump has not yet commented on ESG investing and the SEC’s climate-related disclosures, though Republican Attorneys General have been actively opposing ESG approaches, namely by boycotting firms that exclude certain sectors and by prohibiting the use of ESG-related factors in investment decisions. 

If Republicans gain control of Washington, it is expected that they will also push back against ESG initiatives, particularly the SEC's climate-related disclosures rules (which is already on pause due to legal challenges). If it loses any of the lawsuits against climate disclosures, the regulator can’t revisit the same rulemaking for five years.